Carlin Economics and Science

Note: This post is the summary of the first section of a paper that I presented at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change sponsored by the Heartland Institute, Chicago, Illinois, May 17, 2010. The second section drew heavily on a previous post. The full paper can be downloaded here. The briefing slides used in the presentation can be found here.
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This post explores why EPA plays a pivotal role in the worldwide climate change controversy, what should be done about it, and what longer term reforms are needed to prevent similar attempts to subvert public policy on the basis of bad science. This topic is crucial to understanding the current status of the climate change battle.

Why EPA Is Pivotal

The larger world climate change battle now hinges largely on the fate of the efforts by the US EPA to control some greenhouse gases. The rest of world will not commit economic suicide by agreeing to major greenhouse gas emission cuts unless the US does. On the other hand, the Senate will not approve Cap and Tax; so it all hinges on EPA. If EPA is stopped in its determination to impose carbon rationing, the effort to roll back the industrial revolution can and will be stopped since it is the last real possibility that the US might join some other developed countries in the effort. If EPA is not stopped, the world may well witness an attempt to impose the current green agenda. The Obama Administration will apparently ride the Supreme Court decision until its dying days, regardless of the resulting political damage, which may be severe.

In addition to the continuing importance of halting the implementation of the GHG control schemes, the time has come to start defining what policy and administrative changes might be advisable. What I propose is a series of longer-term reforms needed to decrease the chances that bad regulations based on bad science such as those now being proposed for controlling GHGs will be repeated in the future in the US in other regulatory areas. These include the following in the case of EPA:

* Insulate EPA from political control
* Require that EPA MUST carry out independent analyses and not use any other assessments
* Remove financial incentives for EPA managers to follow the Administration
* Periodically review and reassess major EPA regulations not already subject to review requirement
* Require that EPA use the scientific method in judging the merits of scientific hypotheses.

The following reforms would also appear desirable with regard to other agencies:

* End the new National Climate Service
* Split responsibility for climatic data gathering and climatic data interpretation.
* Get the Federal Government and state legislatures out of energy choice decisions; limit role to strictly R&D and conventional pollution control; no subsidies/taxes/preferences unless justified to bring prices into line with full social costs; so no renewable portfolio standards (RPSs)
* Rethink how Federal R&D decisions are made so that there is broad diversity of hypotheses researched and the process cannot be captured by groups advocating a single hypothesis in the future
* End all US funding of UN climate change efforts and aid to less developed countries based on climate change criteria.