Carlin Economics and Science

On Monday EPA announced its endangerment finding for greenhouse gases. One can infer from the timing of the announcement that the Administration may have taken this action at this time in order to bring something to the table at the Copenhagen COP15 meeting. From a scientific viewpoint it was an odd time to do so given that the very recent Climategate disclosures would presumably have taken some time to digest and analyze for their possible effects on vital conclusions. So the timing may have been based more on the political rather than the scientific factors involved.

But from a larger viewpoint, the Obama who was going to find a way to resolve partisan bickering in Washington has now embarked on a major escalation of the conflict by using the power he holds over Executive Branch agencies to fight its enemies in Congress over the issue of global warming. Although EPA has always been organizationally an arm of the Administration in power, it has until this Administration been able to largely maintain the appearance if not the reality of being science based. That is now much harder to maintain.

Originally the rumor was that the purpose of the endangerment finding would be to pressure Congress into approving a cap and trade bill. But by now it appears fairly clear that the Administration will not be able to gather the needed votes in the Senate to pass the bill at least this year and probably even next year either with or without an endangerment finding. So there would seem to be little reason to push the endangerment finding now unless they intended to attempt to use it as the basis for negotiating at COP15.

Some Major Political Risks

This EPA endangerment approach carries some major risks for the Administration, however. The first risk is that EPA’s apparently politically motivated endangerment finding may be overturned in the now inevitable court reviews.

The second risk is that when implementing greenhouse gas regulations should be announced and certainly when they should ever be implemented the full responsibility will obviously fall onto the Administration rather than being shared between the Administration and Congress, which is what would occur if Congress ever adopted a cap and trade bill. So if many constituents end up being unhappy with the resulting regulations and particularly the greatly increased energy costs and decreased employment that will result it will be obvious who was responsible. And there may well be some unhappy constituents.

A third risk is that they will not be able to contain EPA’s actions since the law clearly specifies that much smaller sources are subject to regulation than they now contemplate, and legal action may force EPA to regulate smaller sources whether it wants to or not.

A fourth risk is that the added uncertainties created by the finding and the added costs in terms of higher energy prices and reduced employment will further weaken the Administration’s claims to be primarily interested in combatting the recession, the issue currently most on the mind of voters.

Some Additional Risks from the International Negotiations Needed to Insure a Worldwide Effort

But there are other risks as well. Suppose the COP15 meeting is unable to reach any agreement that the Administration can sell domestically? Or suppose that there is agreement on a new climate protocol and it comes into force but only a few countries actually live up to what they have agreed to, as has been the case for the Kyoto Protocol, so that what little effect reductions in CO2 may have on global temperatures is lost in the increased emissions of those countries that do not take promised reductions seriously. Or suppose that the developing world says that they will only support a new treaty if the developed world pays the bill, as they have so far done? Is the Administration willing to support a massive foreign aid bill providing funds to the UN, or one of its agencies such as the World Bank, to disperse as they may decide in the middle of the most serious recession of the postwar era to meet these demands by the developing world? Suppose the Russians will agree to a new treaty only if their credits resulting from the collapse of Soviet era manufacturing are honored in a new protocol, meaning that they would face very limited requirements? So the Administration seems to be gambling not only that Americans will not rebel against the potential EPA restrictions but that it can push through a massive UN-administered foreign aid program. And then there is the problem of how to get any possible new protocol through the Senate, which this time would require 67 votes rather than 60 needed for cap and trade. All this seems to me to be quite a gamble.

And just to make things worse from the Administration’s viewpoint, it is not only now clear that key parts of the global warmists’/UN science is scientifically incorrect (see my March Comments and my more recent blog post); it is now also clear how it is that their science came to be the way it is since we now have some of the actual programs used to bring this about as well as some of the Email and programming comments of some of those working to bring this about. Even Mother Nature is not cooperating with very cold, wintry weather sweeping the United States this week.

In my view the Emails and computer files from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) in Great Britain may prove to be of some importance to the USEPA’s current attempts to control greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the Clean Air Act. This is because EPA, perhaps at the urging of others in the Obama Administration, has proposed to regulate GHG emissions on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and reports primarily based on these reports. This is highly unusual in EPA’s almost 39 year history. I cannot think of any instance where EPA depended so heavily on non-EPA synthesis reports to justify proposed regulatory action.

As a result of this EPA decision, EPA’s fortunes in regulating GHGs are directly tied to the fate of the IPCC reports. Although it is hard to argue that any one CRU Email or computer file notation proves the IPCC conclusions wrong, taken as a whole they do strongly suggest two conclusions: First, the CRU and many of its associates (and Email recipients) elsewhere (henceforth CRU et al.), are very tightly tied to the IPCC both in influence and belief and do not appear to be paragons of scientific objectivity and ethics. Second, their data handling leaves something to be desired in terms of data retention, database documentation, and questionable data manipulation.

CRU et al’s Lack of Scientific Objectivity

It seems clear to me that if a group (such as EPA) wanted to get an objective scientific judgment on climate change science, CRU et al., and therefore the IPCC, might be the last place that they would want to rely on. Each “trick” CRU et al used to torture the data they had to yield what appears to be their desired conclusions may have fooled a few more readers into thinking that their basic arguments were valid, but has to decrease the overall assessment of their objectivity. Attempts to manipulate peer reviews and journal acceptances are not acceptable scientific activities. Withholding key scientific data can only make one question their dedication to scientific principles. Hiding their alleged destruction of the basic temperature data that would allow reconstruction of what they have done is almost as bad as discarding such critical data in the first place. Using data that cannot be reproduced is not very useful scientifically or from a regulatory viewpoint.

Yet despite these now evident problems with the CRU et al’s data and research, EPA is now stuck with the IPCC reports, and therefore the closely associated CRU et al’s data and research has become central to its attempts to regulate GHGs. Given that it currently appears unlikely that the Senate will agree to anything resembling the current cap and trade bill, this EPA decision may well greatly decrease the chances that the US will in the end implement serious regulation of GHGs since EPA regulations under the Clean Air Act must survive judicial review of any regulatons that EPA may promulgate.

Need for New Approach

If EPA wants to pursue the regulation of GHGs despite the weak scientific basis for it, there is an evident need for a whole new approach based on truly independent and careful review of the problem using the highest standards of scientific intergrity which does not rely on what appears to be biased research and sloppy data from CRU et al. Although I did not know of the recent revelations concerning CRU et al last March, my Comments strongly called for such a reappraisal. This problem will not go away and may even get worse if we should learn more about the CRU et al’s work. There exists a possibility that EPA’s current approach might succeed by some judicial fluke, but the chances seem to be decreasing with each new revelation concerning the CRU et al.

Presumably one of the reasons that EPA decided to rely on the IPCC and indirectly on the CRU is that the Obama Administration may have felt some urgency to move rapidly on global warming control. Given the downtrend in global temperatures over the past 11 years and the likelihood that this will continue for some time (see Section 2.4 of my Comments) because of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), there would appear to be ample time to start over and do it carefully and thoroughly this time with full input by everyone that may be interested.

Basic Problem Remains

Despite the uproar concerning CRU et al’s data and research, the basic problem remains that the UN hypothesis that increases in GHGs/CO2 will result in significant increases in global temperatures has not been confirmed by comparisons with real world data. Unless it is, attempts to decrease GHG/CO2 emissions in order to significantly change global temperatures are very likely to fail. This is the primary question that EPA and climate scientists need to address before any control efforts are undertaken. Happily we appear to have the time to do so, and to do so objectively using reproducible data.