Carlin Economics and Science

On May 23 I made a presentation on EPA’s proposed carbon “pollution” standard for new power plants at the Heartland Institute’s Seventh International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC7) in Chicago.
My emphasis in the presentation was on my expectations as to what the Obama Administration would be likely to do concerning this and other proposed EPA regulations after the November, 2012 election. My point was that it appears likely that the Administration has been holding back on important aspects of the large range of expensive EPA regulations that it has proposed or is working on until after the election but can be expected to move rapidly afterwards to implement as many as possible, whether they win or lose the election. My presentation can be viewed here and my slides here.
My 2011 presentation on Obama’s Multifaceted GWD Agenda and What Might Be Done to Slow It Down at Heartland’s ICCC6 in Washington, DC can be viewed here and my slides here.
My 2010 presentation on EPA: The Administration’s High Risk but Pivotal Climate Gamble at Heartland’s ICCC4 in Chicago can be viewed here and my slides here. A writen version can be found here.

The USEPA Office of Inspector General (OIG) has issued a review questioning the procedures used in preparing the Technical Support Document (TSD) on which EPA’s Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gases (GHGs) was based. The review argues that the TSD was a “highly influential scientific assessment” but that EPA did not follow the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requirements for such assessments. EPA argues that it was not a “highly influential scientific assessment” and that they therefore did not have to meet the OMB requirements; I could not disagree more.

My comments on the draft TSD strongly advocated an independent EPA review of the science rather then relying on the science presented in reports prepared by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The OIG review does not deal with the validity of the science–only the procedures used in preparing the TSD. But among the OIG conclusions were the following that appear to be related to my recommendation:

“We found that EPA did not contemporaneously document how it applied and considered the assessment factors in determining whether the IPCC and other assessment reports were of sufficient quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity. EPA described the IPCC review procedures and how they met EPA data quality requirements in the proposed and final rulemakings. However, the Agency did not conduct any independent evaluations of IPCC’s compliance with IPCC procedures, nor did EPA document any specific processes it employed to evaluate the scientific and technical information included in IPCC’s AR4 prior to EPA disseminating that information.”

“Because EPA used information from other organizations to support its findings, EPA, in evaluating whether to disseminate that information, should have determined whether the assessments referenced in the TSD (e.g., IPCC’s AR4) complied with EPA’s information quality guidelines, and whether the peer reviews of these assessments met OMB’s requirements for peer review of scientific assessments. U.S. government acceptance of the documents did not relieve EPA of its responsibility to determine whether the data met EPA’s information quality guidelines before disseminating the information.”

For more information and a link to the OIG review see here.

On June 30 I made a presentation at the Sixth International Conference on Climate Change sponsored by the Heartland Institute in Washington, DC, entitled “Obama’s Multifaceted Global Warming Doctrine Agenda and What Might Be Done to Slow It Down.” The slides from the presentation can be downloaded here in PDF format. They provide an overview of many aspects of the Obama Administration’s comprehensive but ill-advised efforts to reduce US carbon dioxide emissions and what might be done to slow down/stop these efforts. Heartland may soon post the video from the presentation on their conference website.

The Obama Administration has made many efforts to support its climate religion (climatism). Since this viewpoint has no basis in the scientific method, it is not science and would seem best characterized as religion. For a list of what the Administration believes they have done see page 27 here. The first item listed is $80 billion (with a “b”) for “clean and efficient energy in ARRA” (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, more commonly called the stimulus bill). Since most of this expenditure will not stimulate anything except the income of politically favored alternative energy providers and their suppliers and future higher cost energy for rate-payers, it is highly unlikely to be very stimulative for the economy as a whole.

The Administration Has Also Embarked on an Extensive Propaganda Campaign in Behalf of Climatism

Although not mentioned in the list of Administration efforts linked above but perhaps at least as worrisome, the Administration appears to have embarked on an extensive propaganda campaign to promote its climate religion to the general public at taxpayers’ expense. They have gone well beyond trying to defend their proposed greenhouse gas regulations by the US Environmental Protection Agency and are attempting to use other EPA programs and other agencies under their control to promote their viewpoint on this subject without the approval of and perhaps even the knowledge of Congress.

Recent news reports are that EPA is now proposing to require that information on greenhouse gas emissions by new automobiles be added to the mileage labels required on all new cars. Such Federal “educational” efforts are not limited to EPA, however. A recent news item reports that AmeriCorps is funding interns in Marin County Schools in California to assist with a climate change education program also designed to motivate students and their families to take voluntary energy efficiency actions to reduce their carbon footprint.

The Department of Education’s Plans for an “Education” Program

Even more recently, the Secretary of Education announced that his Department plans to “help advance the sustainability movement through education” through Federally subsidized school programs beginning as early as kindergarten that teach children about climate change and prepare them “to contribute to the workforce through green jobs.” His intention is that the Department’s efforts will “explain the science behind climate change and how we can change our daily practices to help save the planet.”

My comment is that one of the reasons that the Federal Government does not have primary responsibility for education is to avoid the possibility that it could directly inculcate the viewpoints of those currently in power on students throughout the country. But when funds for education at the state and local level are short, the Federal Government may believe that it has found a way around this restriction.

A National Park Service Effort

Most of this post, however, will deal with the expansion to the National Park Service (NPS), which may not have been so widely publicized but appears to be further along in its implementation so that it is easier to visualize what the “educational” efforts by other departments may look like when fully implemented. Because the Park Service is often viewed as an impartial source of objective information on natural history subjects, the NPS effort may carry added weight with citizens who view it, although the attempts to teach climatism to children as early as kindergarten may also be viewed as likely to be unusually “effective” by those desiring such an outcome.

The National Park Service’s Traveling Climate Change Exhibit

NPS/NASA Exhibit on Arrange for Change as photographed by Alan Carlin in NCNP (click to enlarge)

On a recent visit to the Visitor Center for North Cascades National Park near Newhalem, Washington, I encountered a large “traveling” exhibit panel entitled “Arrange for Change” with NPS and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) symbols indicating sponsorship. Rangers at the Visitor Center reported that it had been there for about a month and had come from Lewis and Clark National Historic Park and would soon move to another park. It was apparently intended as a temporary exhibit since the more permanent exhibit it replaced was still partially visible behind the large new exhibit in front of it. There were no handouts or other written material provided with the exhibit or available from those rangers asked so visitors would necessarily have to go by the exact contents of the exhibit in formulating their views on the subjects raised.

Last Section of NPS/NASA Exhibit on Arrange for Change (click to enlarge)

Briefly, the exhibit attempts to summarize the case for climatism with an emphasis on evidence from and impacts on national parks and ends by stating in the fourth of four sections (in the lower right of the written area of the exhibit and in the photograph above) that:

“Perhaps one of the best strategies for coping with change is for each person to become ‘carbon neutral’ in their daily lives. This can be accomplished by reducing energy use and investing in practices and alternate technologies that offset carbon emissons we are generating.”

Although the exhibit adheres closely to the standard climatism religion, and is therefore subject to the many general criticisms (see, for example, here and here) of it, I do have a number of questions and concerns about particular points made in the exhibit. First of all, the recommended strategy assumes a degree of altruism rarely seen in the real world since anyone who adopted the advice would have to engage in less energy-using activities and/or pay others to reduce their emissions through buying offsets. This is the reason that most advocates want mandatory standards so that everyone would have to endure similar losses whether they are altruistic or not.

The Rationale Is the Usual Climatism but without the Usual References

First Section of NPS/NASA Exhibit on Arrange for Change (click to enlarge)

The rationale for all this may be a little hard to understand by those not familiar with the climatism viewpoint. The first of the four sections in the exhibit states that:

“The scientific consensus is that global temperature in now rising at a rate unprecedented in the experience of modern human society (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Scientists also say most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

Accompanying these words is the Mona Loa CO₂ level chart showing steady increases over the years 1960 to about 2004.

This first section has a few problems. It relies almost exclusively on the authority of largely unspecified “scientists.” Since there is some evidence that temperatures rose at a similar rate in the 1920-30s, and, in fact for similar periods in the gradually rising 60 year cycles exhibited by global temperatures since the Little Ice Age (see here and my Comments, which can be downloaded from here), it is difficult to understand how the authors of the exhibit believe that global temperatures are “rising at a rate unprecedented in the experience of modern human society.” Perhaps more important is the lack of a citation (such as perhaps various IPCC reports) for the even more doubtful statement that most warming over the last 50 years is due to human activities. The implication of the Mona Loa chart would seem to be that the increasing levels of CO₂ are due to human activities, although this is certainly not stated and highly doubtful. Finally, no mention is made of the alternative hypothesis that the rise in CO₂ levels is an effect of rising ocean temperatures sometime in the past rather than anything humans may have done since rising ocean temperatures mean that the oceans cannot hold as much CO₂.

Exhibit Says Wildland Fires Have Increased–But Is This a Result of a Policy Change?

Lower Left Section of NPS/NASA Exhibit on Arrange for Change (click to enlarge)
The lower left section is entitled “Changes Disrupt Park Use.” The text states that:

“Higher temperatures in spring and summer and earlier melting of the snow pack in recent years have contributed to an increase in the frequency and duration of wildland fires. This increase in wildfires often causes park facilities to close. The 2006 fire season set a 45-year-high in the number of acres burned. 2006 was also the hottest January through July on record in America’s parks. In many parks, wintry weather is beginning later and ending earlier. Although this makes for a longer season of hiking and camping it reduces opportunities for recreational skiing and other winter sports due to inadequate snow cover. These impacts have economic implications.”

This section also has pictures of a plume from a forest fire and a cross-country skier.

No source is given for the temperature statement; it does seem odd that the period January through July was chosen rather than a full year, which would seem to be slightly more relevant (but hardly conclusive for assessing whether there really has been climatic change). Presumably most fires occur in the late summer or early fall, which is excluded from the period referenced. Also, I thought that the Park Service had changed its views concerning the role of fires in parks and now regards naturally-originated fires as good rather than a target for suppression. In some cases it even carries out controlled burns. Could it be that the increase in the number of acres burned was the result of this change in policy rather than climate change? The exhibit does not explain. It should also be pointed out that attempts to control carbon emissions also have economic impacts–and quite likely little, if any, impact.

Exhibit Claims Climate Change Is Happening on the Basis of Two Pictures and a Cute Endangered Pika

Upper Right Section of NPS/NASA Exhibit on Arrange for Change (click to enlarge)

The upper right section is entitled “Climate Change Is Happening.” It shows two pictures labelled Northwestern Glacier, Kenai Fjords National Park, 1909 and 2005, respectively. The former appers to show a much larger glacier and more mountain snow than the latter. No month or day of the year is provided for either photograph. The text states:

“Warmer winters and longer, more intense periods of melting have increased the rate of glacial retreat in many parks, as demonstrated by the Northwestern Glacier in Kenai Fjords National Park. It is estimated by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey that by 2030, many of the glaciers in Montana’s Glacier National Park will be completely gone. In Yosemite, the pike population is endanger of extinction as warming temperatures are shifting their cool habitat higher and higher on the mountainsides.”

A picture of a pika is provided.

There is undoubtedly some climate change occurring on Earth, just as there has been for billions of years, but this section of the presentation does not make a case for climate change due to human activity as opposed to natural forces. And unless there is change due to human activity, there is no basis for “solving” the “problem” by modifying human behavior. With regard to the claim in the exhibit that there has been climate change in the parks, since no month is given when the two photographs were taken it is not possible to say whether the change in mountain snow levels between them is due to differences in time of year or in climate.

Such is not the case, however, for the extent of the glacier since that is much less dependent on time of the year but is greatly dependent on the amount of precipitation in the form of snow. It is important to note that the year 1909 is at or near the low point in the 60 year natural climate cycle while 2005 is near the top of this natural cycle (see my Comments downloadable from here), so some or even all of the differences in the extent of the glacier may be explainable by the natural 60 year climate cycle or changes in snow precipitation rather than any change in human emissions. If so, there may be climate change, but not necessarily human-induced climate change.

Some Questions About the Appropriateness of Using Public Funds to Directly Influence Public Opinion on a Highly Partisan Issue

In addition to the substantive issues raised above concerning the statements in the exhibit, it is very important to question the appropriateness of having the exhibit in a national park, paying Americorps interns to teach climatism to students, or using Federal subsidies to teach climatism in the schools. The effort appears to be widespread enough in the Federal Government so that it may have been directed from the White House, but it is possible that these various efforts are the result of individual departments attempting to curry favor with the Administration by supporting known Administration viewpoints. It would be interesting, however, to learn just how widespread these efforts are in the Executive Branch and how much is being spent on them.

The critical question, it seems to me, is whether taxpayers should pay for trying to influence the opinions of park visitors or students concerning a highly partisan issue which has split the Democrats in Congress and united the Republicans in the Senate in opposition. The highly questionable views (see my Comments downloadable here) attributed to “scientists” presented by the exhibit make no effort to present a balanced viewpoint by the many scientists who have presented differing views on the subject. And if such attempts are made to influence public opinion is it not the Park Service’s and each school’s responsibility to present all viewpoints in a balanced way, which is presumably what they try to do with their many other presentations to the public/students? Have the Park Service and Americorps and the Department of Education become mere propaganda arms for the Executive Branch of the Federal Government? Since climatism is currently a highly partisan debate in Congress and some state legislatures, should these agencies use taxpayer funds to support one side of the debate with no mention of the opposing viewpoints?

I think the answer to these questions should be for Federal agencies to get out of the climate change education business. Big Brother should not be attempting to sell his religious views to students or park visitors. Since the Administration appears unlikely to do this on its own, probably the easiest way to implement such restrictions is to prohibit the expenditure of Federal funds for the purpose of promoting climatism to the public.

Warmists had little hope for a climate bill this year after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s July 22 decision not to push an energy bill this year containing cap and trade/tax provisions or renewable electricity standards. Reid’s decision yesterday not to bring even a greatly scaled down bill to a vote before the August Congressional recess because of a lack of votes further reinforced his earlier decision since if the Senate does not pass an energy bill soon it will be even harder to bring up a House-Senate “compromise” bill including the House-passed Waxman-Markey cap and trade/tax bill during a possible lame-duck session. This virtually ends any remaining possibility of a climate bill this year.

The future of climate change regulation now rides with what the US Environmental Protection Agency does or does not do. The Senate vote of 47-53 on June 10 on whether to prevent the EPA from pursuing climate regulations suggests that Senate support for EPA in this regard is fragile at best. If EPA should be prevented from pursuing climate change regulation, the worldwide climate regulation movement will probably be largely over as a viable political possibility (see here and here).

July 22 appears likely to mark a significant turning point in the long global warming/climate change control saga. Yesterday, the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, announced that the Senate would not consider legislation prior to the August recess that involved either cap and trade/tax or a renewable electricity standard. Although this outcome had been predicted for some time by some Republican senators such as James Inhofe, this amounts to a recognition of this reality by the Senate Democratic leadership. This decision makes it unlikely that such legislation will be approved this year. If, as some Republicans hope, the next Congress has more Republican members, such legislation would be even less likely in the next Congress. There remains a risk that such legislation would be passed in a lame-duck session at the end of 2010, but that may not be a strong possibility given the apparent lack of interest by all Senate Republicans and some Democrats.

So the only remaining realistic possibility for implementation of carbon emission controls is probably through actions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. On June 10 the Senate failed by a vote of 47/53 to disapprove the EPA Endangerment Finding of late 2009. It is possible, however, that a two year delay in EPA action will be approved by Congress later this year in accordance with a proposal by Senator Jay Rockefeller. But if this or other ways can be found to halt EPA’s efforts the remaining major risk of global “climate control” would be effectively ended in the US.

This development yesterday is likely to sooner or later result in the end of world support for such approaches if a way is found to end EPA’s threatened regulations. Those countries that choose to continue major governmental efforts to reduce carbon emissions will soon find themselves at a competitive disadvantage to those that do not. Few countries are likely to be willing to take such risks with their economies for very long.

As explained in a recent paper, there are only a few ways in which the US Environmental Protection Agency can be prevented from rewriting the Clean Air Act and issuing sweeping regulations to attempt to control emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. These regulations are not based on good science but rather largely on something called an “Endangerment Finding” issued late in 2009, which in turn is based on a US Supreme Court decision of 2007 that effectively expanded the reach of the Clean Air Act beyond anything mentioned in the Act. In other words, EPA is attempting to greatly expand its power and authority without any Congressional approval of what it is doing. The result is an EPA-initiated expansion of its already vast power over the economy and will result in very large adverse economic costs to the American public (especially “necessarily skyrocket”[ing] energy costs in the words of Barack Obama in the related context of cap and trade) with very little if any economic benefits.

This state of affairs is scheduled for its first real Congressional test on Thursday, June 10, when the Senate is scheduled to vote on the Murkowski Disapproval Resolution (S.J.Res.26), which uses the Congressional Review Act to dispprove the Endangerment Finding. Although further Congressional action would be needed to make the disapproval effective, its approval by the Senate would be a major first step towards this end. As of June 7 the vote was expected to be very close. Those who believe as I do that it is very important to prevent EPA from unilaterally vastly expanding its authority over the economy without approval by Congress can best influence the outcome of the vote by contacting their senators on June 8 or 9 and urging them to vote yes on S.J.Res.26.

Note: This post is the summary of the first section of a paper that I presented at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change sponsored by the Heartland Institute, Chicago, Illinois, May 17, 2010. The second section drew heavily on a previous post. The full paper can be downloaded here. The briefing slides used in the presentation can be found here.
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This post explores why EPA plays a pivotal role in the worldwide climate change controversy, what should be done about it, and what longer term reforms are needed to prevent similar attempts to subvert public policy on the basis of bad science. This topic is crucial to understanding the current status of the climate change battle.

Why EPA Is Pivotal

The larger world climate change battle now hinges largely on the fate of the efforts by the US EPA to control some greenhouse gases. The rest of world will not commit economic suicide by agreeing to major greenhouse gas emission cuts unless the US does. On the other hand, the Senate will not approve Cap and Tax; so it all hinges on EPA. If EPA is stopped in its determination to impose carbon rationing, the effort to roll back the industrial revolution can and will be stopped since it is the last real possibility that the US might join some other developed countries in the effort. If EPA is not stopped, the world may well witness an attempt to impose the current green agenda. The Obama Administration will apparently ride the Supreme Court decision until its dying days, regardless of the resulting political damage, which may be severe.

In addition to the continuing importance of halting the implementation of the GHG control schemes, the time has come to start defining what policy and administrative changes might be advisable. What I propose is a series of longer-term reforms needed to decrease the chances that bad regulations based on bad science such as those now being proposed for controlling GHGs will be repeated in the future in the US in other regulatory areas. These include the following in the case of EPA:

* Insulate EPA from political control
* Require that EPA MUST carry out independent analyses and not use any other assessments
* Remove financial incentives for EPA managers to follow the Administration
* Periodically review and reassess major EPA regulations not already subject to review requirement
* Require that EPA use the scientific method in judging the merits of scientific hypotheses.

The following reforms would also appear desirable with regard to other agencies:

* End the new National Climate Service
* Split responsibility for climatic data gathering and climatic data interpretation.
* Get the Federal Government and state legislatures out of energy choice decisions; limit role to strictly R&D and conventional pollution control; no subsidies/taxes/preferences unless justified to bring prices into line with full social costs; so no renewable portfolio standards (RPSs)
* Rethink how Federal R&D decisions are made so that there is broad diversity of hypotheses researched and the process cannot be captured by groups advocating a single hypothesis in the future
* End all US funding of UN climate change efforts and aid to less developed countries based on climate change criteria.

Given the the apparent death of cap and trade legislation in the US Senate, the short-term outcome of the US debate on action that allegedly might reduce climate change may rest primarily on what the USEPA manages to actually do. So it is of some importance what criteria EPA claims to be using in determining the scientific merits of its endangerment finding. In US EPA’s view the UN IPCC reports and other assessments based on it are so satisfactory an assessement of current climate science that no independent EPA analysis was necessary, primarily because of the IPCC’s “rigorous” policy on peer review. EPA cites this review policy as the reason it accepts these reports rather than others, such as the NIPCC report. Recent reports show that as actually carried out the UN IPCC AR4 assessment was much less than rigorous in the application of its peer review guidelines, however. Lost in this exchange, however, is whether the yardsticks being used by the UN and the EPA are reasonable. Both organizations appear to assume that peer review is the important characteristic of valid science included in scientific assessment reports.

I maintain, on the contrary, that the important characteristic should be how well the hypotheses proposed by the UN IPCC corresponds with real world evidence. It is only this crucial correspondence that determines the scientific validity of a hypothesis, not how many or how distinguished the reviewers may be who agree with the relevant hypotheses. This should be evident since any widely held scientific view (such as that the Earth is flat some centuries ago) would have easily qualified as valid science using a peer review standard since the supporters could easily have gotten a large number of favorable reviews of their hypotheses. This is what has happened in the case of the AGW hypothesis. There are enough global warming supporters among climate scientists so that with a little careful selection favorable peer reviews can be obtained for any desired warmist hypothesis. Hence such views can pass the peer review standard whether a hypothesis really stands up to comparisons with real world data or not.

For example, the EPA claims in Response 1-12 to the public comments on the EPA proposed endangerment finding that the 880 page NIPCC report stands in sharp contrast to the IPCC and related reports:

“The [NIPCC] organization does not appear to have established any procedures for author selection and provides no evidence that a transparent and open public or expert review was conducted. Thus, the NIPCC’s approach stands in sharp contrast to the clear, transparent, and open procedures of the IPCC, CCSP, USGCRP, and NRC.”

So although there is some discussion of the arguments raised by the NIPCC report, no real effort appears to have been made to consider using the NIPCC report at least in part on the basis of whether the report had “adequate” peer-review guidelines. According to the EPA, only the IPCC and similar reports including such peer review meet EPA’s “exacting” review standards. How accurate or how closely the NIPCC and other skeptic reports correspond with real world evidence appears not to be of any real importance to the EPA–just how comprehensive the stated review process was supposed to be. Yet when deviations from these standards are detailed EPA maintains that the IPCC conclusions would not have been materially affected rather than admitting that their expressed confidence in the UN procedures was misplaced. This is also an argument that the substantive scientific merits of the non-IPCC assessments do matter, but only when the procedural aspects have not been comprehensively implemented. The reverse should be the case.

The Purposes of Peer Review

The basis for the underlying argument is what is fundamental to the scientific method: Correspondence with real world data or procedural review requirements. In examining this issue it is useful to recall the history of scientific peer review. It was basically introduced so as to decide which papers submitted to printed journals should be included and whether there might be improvements that could be made in those selected, primarily for the purpose of saving then precious journal space. This may have actually been useful in the days when journals were of limited size based on the printing and mailing costs.

Peer review subsequently served an added purpose–to provide a basis for discriminating between the output of various authors/professors and thus providing a basis for conferring academic tenure on some but not on others. The second purpose is still a rationale argument for using peer review, but the first purpose is technologically obsolete since Web publication of added papers is very low cost and may be almost free. Use of Web-based journals has the added advantage that they are normally free to all users rather than limited to the select few who can afford often very expensive subscriptions. And peer review of papers for journal publication has many very important disadvantages, of which the most important is that it often prevents publication of non-conventional ideas that may have great merit. This appears to have been too often the case with regard to the consideration of skeptic contributions to climate science in recent years.

So the extension of journal-based peer review to determining the scientific merit of competing hypotheses is a very important policy issue since it may lead to reducing the importance of comparisons of competing scientific hypotheses against real world data. This is exactly what appears to have happened in the case of the AGW hypothesis of global warming. In fact, warmists have widely cited better peer review as an important reason to support their hypothesis; according to the Climategate emails, leading warmist scientists actively conspired to prevent skeptic-oriented papers from being published in major climate-related journals.

The Fundamental Issue: How Should Scientific Hypotheses Be Judged?

All this highlights the fundamental issue of whether scientific hypotheses should be judged on the basis of whether they have appeared in peer-reviewed journal publications or on the basis of correspondence with observed real world data. I believe very strongly that it is the latter rather than the former that should be used. One important reason is that peer-review is subject to the same “group think” that science should seek to avoid in order to be objective and useful. And that is exactly what has happened in the case of the AGW hypothesis. Despite the absense of any relevant real world data comparisons to support their case, warmists try to use the widespread support (the so-called “consensus”) among sympathetic scientists for their hypothesis to argue that it should be accepted. Obviously if this was the standard, we would still believe that the Earth was flat and that the Earth was the center of the universe, to mention just two widely supported hypotheses disproved by their lack of correspondence with real world data.

It is very unfortunate and may even prove disastrous that EPA and other environmental regulatory institutions appear to have made peer review procedures of much more importance than correspondence with real world data. Scientific assessments need to determine the correspondence between hypotheses on the basis of real world data, not relative “peer review” procedures. This needs to be corrected before immense damage is done to our crucial criteria for judging scientific hypotheses and to our economy as a result of using faulty science for public policy purposes.

(Additional sources added January 30, 2010)

The Obama Administration decided in its first month in office to try to use the authority given to EPA by the Supreme Court in Massachusetts vs. EPA to regulate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the Clean Air Act. Instead of conducting its own independent analysis of the science, as I had strongly recommended and as it has traditionally done, however, EPA decided to basically use the summary reports issued by the United Nations under its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and reports based primarily on these reports by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). They claim that these reports represent a comprehensive analysis of the science and that there was no need to conduct its own analysis given the “rigorous” guidelines issued by these organizations.

In this way, EPA both expedited its task by using “ready made” external reports, and avoided any real discussion of the many scientific uncertainties surrounding climate change. The net result of EPA’s action thus far on climate change has been to avoid a vote by any legislative body as well as an independent analysis of the science. So no pesky legislators or skeptical scientists to placate. An explanation given by the Obama Administration was that they would prefer that GHGs be regulated under “cap and trade” legislation, but that perhaps the threat of administrative regulation would spur Congressional action. Since there has not been and is unlikely to be any major legislative action on cap and trade over the next few years due to strong opposition in the Senate, the US response to climate change is likely to largely come down to the actions that EPA takes.

US Public May Resent Such EPA Efforts

It has been my view that the American public would resent attempts by EPA to unilaterally impose regulations that would have the effect of greatly increasing the costs of energy use or imposing other constraints on energy-related activities without a new legislative mandate for this purpose, particularly without meticulous and truly independent EPA review of the science rather than depending on UN science. There is increasing evidence that the UN reports relied on by EPA are at best questionable in some of their major conclusions and may even be fraudulent in important aspects. But EPA has had such apparent faith in the UN science that they proceeded without carefully checking either the plausibility of the science or even its honesty.

Whether EPA’s decision was based on expediency or as an end run around the normal bureaucratic process is not known, but both motivations appear plausible. As a result of recent disclosures of the Climategate Emails (for a detailed analysis see here) and computer files it is now evident that not only are important parts of the science questionable but those who were primarily responsible for it may have been less than professional in their conduct and quite possibly engaged in scientific fraud. This was actually known prior to the release of the final EPA endangerment decision on December 7, 2009, but did not stop their finding on endangerment, perhaps out of the belief that this would somehow “save” the ill-fated UN Copenhagen conference. This finding became effective a week ago on January 14, so this seems an appropriate time to review the overall situation.

EPA’s Basic Argument Is that the UN Has Already Considered All Viewpoints

A review of EPA’s responses to public comments to the endangerment finding that their basic argument (see response 1-2) is that by using IPCC and other reports largely based on it that they have by proxy considered all relevant viewpoints. Generally speaking, any other ideas proposed by commenters that were inconsistent with the UN viewpoints were downplayed using various UN-based arguments and then rejected. They justified doing this primarily on the basis of the guidelines stated to have been used by the IPCC (see Appendix A of the EPA responses) and others in reviewing their reports. The very comprehensive 888 page skeptic NIPCC report was dismissed (see response 1-12) primarily on the basis that it does not detail an elaborate review process that had been followed. In other words, EPA appears to believe that stated procedure is more important than scientific substance.

Nowhere that I have found does it say how EPA verified that the UN reports were not biased and actually did consider all relevant viewpoints, or even that they tried to do so. Apparently the UN guidelines were sufficient in EPA’s view. But what if the UN guidelines were not carefully implemented and certain viewpoints were excluded, either by accident or perhaps even on purpose, as suggested by some of the Climategate Emails and the alleged disappearing Himalayan glaciers? What did EPA do to verify that this did not happen? Since the ultimate costs of EPA’s actions could run into many trillions of dollars, it is really important to be certain as to the science, something which EPA has not demonstrated.

The answer is that EPA did not do much if any verification in their headlong rush to respond to the new Administration or even under an earlier abortive effort during the Bush Administration. They were and are convinced that the UN science is reliable despite the many questions raised by skeptics. They accepted the assertions of the UN and other groups that their procedures were carefully implemented. But maybe these groups had conflicts of interest not covered, of course, by EPA ethics rules? And we are beginning to see evidence that less than careful implementation of these guidelines is a major problem with at least the IPCC reports, on which all the others are largely based. See, for example, the Climategate Emails, the Himalayan glacier problem referenced above and analyzed in terms of its implications for IPCC procedures here, the references here, Steve McIntyre’s analysis of some instances where the reports EPA relied on do not meet EPA’s requirements for such reports, and Chip Knappenberger’s summary of some of the instances where the IPCC did not follow its own procedures, to mention just a few.

But the UN Appears Not to Have Really Considered all Viewpoints, Particularly Those Held by Skeptics

Even before Climategate there were many indications that the IPCC might be less than objective in its reports. Consider, for example, the resignation letter by Chris Landsea from the preparation of the AR4 IPCC report which concluded that: “I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound.” After Climategate there can be little remaining doubt that Landsea was correct.

Dr. Benny Peiser, a long time and informed observer of the climate change scene, expressed it very clearly a few days ago as follows: “The IPCC review process has been shown on numerous occasions to lack transparency and due diligence. Its work is controlled by a tightly knit group of individuals who are completely convinced that they are right. As a result, conflicting data and evidence, even if published in peer reviewed journals, are regularly ignored, while exaggerated claims, even if contentious or not peer-reviewed, are often highlighted in IPCC reports. Not surprisingly, the IPCC has lost a lot of credibility in recent years. It is also losing the trust of more and more governments who are no longer following their advice – as the Copenhagen summit showed.”

Surely even if it used the UN science it was incumbent on EPA to carefully check whether the elaborate guidelines of the IPCC and CCSP were carefully and faithfully implemented. But it appears that they could not find time for this or perhaps more likely, did not want to, even after Climategate.

So EPA Apparently Intends to Proceed Unless Stopped by Congress or the Courts

Yet it appears to be the intention of EPA to regulate GHG emissions in the United States on the basis of this UN science, presumably as soon as they are able to finish the paperwork and observe some of the bureaucratic requirements. In these circumstances, only Congress and the courts have the authority to prevent this from happening, but would have to take one of several actions to bring this about. So far Congress has not chosen to do so, and it will take some time to see whether or not the courts may decide to block the implementation of various EPA regulations. I see no indication to date that EPA plans to back off its announced determination to impose its regulations without any serious independent analysis as to whether they are needed or would actually promote the purposes of the Clean Air Act. Whether Americans will be happy buying smaller, lighter-weight, less crash-worthy vehicles or paying more for energy remains to be seen. But they will not be given any real choice in the matter on the basis that EPA believes the UN science without the bother of careful, extensive, and particularly independent review. In other words the UN knows best and EPA must implement what they recommend as rapidly and with as little examination as possible.

On Monday EPA announced its endangerment finding for greenhouse gases. One can infer from the timing of the announcement that the Administration may have taken this action at this time in order to bring something to the table at the Copenhagen COP15 meeting. From a scientific viewpoint it was an odd time to do so given that the very recent Climategate disclosures would presumably have taken some time to digest and analyze for their possible effects on vital conclusions. So the timing may have been based more on the political rather than the scientific factors involved.

But from a larger viewpoint, the Obama who was going to find a way to resolve partisan bickering in Washington has now embarked on a major escalation of the conflict by using the power he holds over Executive Branch agencies to fight its enemies in Congress over the issue of global warming. Although EPA has always been organizationally an arm of the Administration in power, it has until this Administration been able to largely maintain the appearance if not the reality of being science based. That is now much harder to maintain.

Originally the rumor was that the purpose of the endangerment finding would be to pressure Congress into approving a cap and trade bill. But by now it appears fairly clear that the Administration will not be able to gather the needed votes in the Senate to pass the bill at least this year and probably even next year either with or without an endangerment finding. So there would seem to be little reason to push the endangerment finding now unless they intended to attempt to use it as the basis for negotiating at COP15.

Some Major Political Risks

This EPA endangerment approach carries some major risks for the Administration, however. The first risk is that EPA’s apparently politically motivated endangerment finding may be overturned in the now inevitable court reviews.

The second risk is that when implementing greenhouse gas regulations should be announced and certainly when they should ever be implemented the full responsibility will obviously fall onto the Administration rather than being shared between the Administration and Congress, which is what would occur if Congress ever adopted a cap and trade bill. So if many constituents end up being unhappy with the resulting regulations and particularly the greatly increased energy costs and decreased employment that will result it will be obvious who was responsible. And there may well be some unhappy constituents.

A third risk is that they will not be able to contain EPA’s actions since the law clearly specifies that much smaller sources are subject to regulation than they now contemplate, and legal action may force EPA to regulate smaller sources whether it wants to or not.

A fourth risk is that the added uncertainties created by the finding and the added costs in terms of higher energy prices and reduced employment will further weaken the Administration’s claims to be primarily interested in combatting the recession, the issue currently most on the mind of voters.

Some Additional Risks from the International Negotiations Needed to Insure a Worldwide Effort

But there are other risks as well. Suppose the COP15 meeting is unable to reach any agreement that the Administration can sell domestically? Or suppose that there is agreement on a new climate protocol and it comes into force but only a few countries actually live up to what they have agreed to, as has been the case for the Kyoto Protocol, so that what little effect reductions in CO2 may have on global temperatures is lost in the increased emissions of those countries that do not take promised reductions seriously. Or suppose that the developing world says that they will only support a new treaty if the developed world pays the bill, as they have so far done? Is the Administration willing to support a massive foreign aid bill providing funds to the UN, or one of its agencies such as the World Bank, to disperse as they may decide in the middle of the most serious recession of the postwar era to meet these demands by the developing world? Suppose the Russians will agree to a new treaty only if their credits resulting from the collapse of Soviet era manufacturing are honored in a new protocol, meaning that they would face very limited requirements? So the Administration seems to be gambling not only that Americans will not rebel against the potential EPA restrictions but that it can push through a massive UN-administered foreign aid program. And then there is the problem of how to get any possible new protocol through the Senate, which this time would require 67 votes rather than 60 needed for cap and trade. All this seems to me to be quite a gamble.

And just to make things worse from the Administration’s viewpoint, it is not only now clear that key parts of the global warmists’/UN science is scientifically incorrect (see my March Comments and my more recent blog post); it is now also clear how it is that their science came to be the way it is since we now have some of the actual programs used to bring this about as well as some of the Email and programming comments of some of those working to bring this about. Even Mother Nature is not cooperating with very cold, wintry weather sweeping the United States this week.

In my view the Emails and computer files from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) in Great Britain may prove to be of some importance to the USEPA’s current attempts to control greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the Clean Air Act. This is because EPA, perhaps at the urging of others in the Obama Administration, has proposed to regulate GHG emissions on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and reports primarily based on these reports. This is highly unusual in EPA’s almost 39 year history. I cannot think of any instance where EPA depended so heavily on non-EPA synthesis reports to justify proposed regulatory action.

As a result of this EPA decision, EPA’s fortunes in regulating GHGs are directly tied to the fate of the IPCC reports. Although it is hard to argue that any one CRU Email or computer file notation proves the IPCC conclusions wrong, taken as a whole they do strongly suggest two conclusions: First, the CRU and many of its associates (and Email recipients) elsewhere (henceforth CRU et al.), are very tightly tied to the IPCC both in influence and belief and do not appear to be paragons of scientific objectivity and ethics. Second, their data handling leaves something to be desired in terms of data retention, database documentation, and questionable data manipulation.

CRU et al’s Lack of Scientific Objectivity

It seems clear to me that if a group (such as EPA) wanted to get an objective scientific judgment on climate change science, CRU et al., and therefore the IPCC, might be the last place that they would want to rely on. Each “trick” CRU et al used to torture the data they had to yield what appears to be their desired conclusions may have fooled a few more readers into thinking that their basic arguments were valid, but has to decrease the overall assessment of their objectivity. Attempts to manipulate peer reviews and journal acceptances are not acceptable scientific activities. Withholding key scientific data can only make one question their dedication to scientific principles. Hiding their alleged destruction of the basic temperature data that would allow reconstruction of what they have done is almost as bad as discarding such critical data in the first place. Using data that cannot be reproduced is not very useful scientifically or from a regulatory viewpoint.

Yet despite these now evident problems with the CRU et al’s data and research, EPA is now stuck with the IPCC reports, and therefore the closely associated CRU et al’s data and research has become central to its attempts to regulate GHGs. Given that it currently appears unlikely that the Senate will agree to anything resembling the current cap and trade bill, this EPA decision may well greatly decrease the chances that the US will in the end implement serious regulation of GHGs since EPA regulations under the Clean Air Act must survive judicial review of any regulatons that EPA may promulgate.

Need for New Approach

If EPA wants to pursue the regulation of GHGs despite the weak scientific basis for it, there is an evident need for a whole new approach based on truly independent and careful review of the problem using the highest standards of scientific intergrity which does not rely on what appears to be biased research and sloppy data from CRU et al. Although I did not know of the recent revelations concerning CRU et al last March, my Comments strongly called for such a reappraisal. This problem will not go away and may even get worse if we should learn more about the CRU et al’s work. There exists a possibility that EPA’s current approach might succeed by some judicial fluke, but the chances seem to be decreasing with each new revelation concerning the CRU et al.

Presumably one of the reasons that EPA decided to rely on the IPCC and indirectly on the CRU is that the Obama Administration may have felt some urgency to move rapidly on global warming control. Given the downtrend in global temperatures over the past 11 years and the likelihood that this will continue for some time (see Section 2.4 of my Comments) because of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), there would appear to be ample time to start over and do it carefully and thoroughly this time with full input by everyone that may be interested.

Basic Problem Remains

Despite the uproar concerning CRU et al’s data and research, the basic problem remains that the UN hypothesis that increases in GHGs/CO2 will result in significant increases in global temperatures has not been confirmed by comparisons with real world data. Unless it is, attempts to decrease GHG/CO2 emissions in order to significantly change global temperatures are very likely to fail. This is the primary question that EPA and climate scientists need to address before any control efforts are undertaken. Happily we appear to have the time to do so, and to do so objectively using reproducible data.

On June 25th the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) released a draft copy of my report critical of the science underlying EPA’s proposed position on Endangerment under the Clean Air Act and the role of CO2 in global warming saying:

“The released report is a draft version, prepared under EPA’s unusually short internal review schedule, and thus may contain inaccuracies which were corrected in the final report. While we hoped that EPA would release the final report, we’re tired of waiting for this agency to become transparent, even though its Administrator has been talking transparency since she took office. So we are releasing a draft version of the report ourselves, today,” said CEI General Counsel Sam Kazman.

CEI noted that: Internal EPA email messages, released by CEI earlier that week, indicate that in their view the report was kept under wraps and that I was silenced because of pressure to support the Administration’s agenda of regulating carbon dioxide. On June 26 I was given permission by EPA management to post the report on my personal website but not on the EPA website.  Instead of posting the earlier draft released by CEI on June 25 I instead posted the last version prepared before the deadline for internal comments modified only to correct a few of the non-substantive problems. On August 5, EPA posted the last version of my Comments prepared prior to the end of the internal EPA comment period on March 16. This does not include the modifications to correct a few of the non-substantive problems. Thus there are now three different versions on the Web to my knowledge:

The early version made public by CEI on June 25
The last version prepared on March 16 completely unchanged and as distributed by EPA in response to FOIA requests.
The non-substantively modified version of the March 16 version which I prepared in late June

The major differences are between the CEI version and the last two, which are substantively identical. Unfortunately, many readers do not realize that the CEI version is an early version rather than the last version. EPA released the original March 16 version on August 5 as a frequently requested record under the Freedom of Information Act.

For further background information on all this, see press coverage including the following: CBSNews, NYTimes, Wall Street Journal news and opinion, and London Telegraph. For commentary on a September NYTimes story see here.

The title page of the last two versions of the report listed above reads as follows:

Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act
By Alan Carlin
NCEE/OPEI
Based on TSD Draft of March 9, 2009
March 16, 2009

I prepared an update to this document, which is on page iii of the last version listed above, so that readers can better understand the conditions under which this report was prepared. I’m reproducing it here:

Important Note on the Origins of These Comments

These comments were prepared during the week of March 9-16, 2009 and are based on the March 9 version of the draft EPA Technical Support document for the endangerment analysis for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act. On March 17, the Director of the National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) in the EPA Office of Policy, Economics, and Innovation communicated his decision not to forward these comments along the chain-of-command that would have resulted in their transmission to the Office of Air and Radiation, the authors of the draft TSD.

These comments (dated March 16) represent the last version prepared prior to the close of the internal EPA comment period as modified on June 27 to correct some of the non-substantive problems that could not be corrected at the time. No substantive change has been made from the version actually submitted on March 16. The following example illustrates the type of changes made on June 27. Prior to March 16 the draft comments were prepared as draft comments by NCEE with Alan Carlin and John Davidson listed as authors. In response to internal NCEE comments this was changed on March 16 to single author comments with assistance acknowledged by John Davidson. There was insufficient time, however, because of deadlines imposed by the Office of Air and Radiation, to make the corresponding change in the use of the word “we” to “I” implicit in the change in listed authorship. This change has been made in this version.

It is very important that readers of these comments understand that these comments were prepared under severe time constraints. The actual time available was approximately 4-5 working days. It was therefore impossible to observe normal scholarly standards or even to carefully proofread the comments. As a result there are undoubtedly numerous unresolved inconsistencies and other problems that would normally have been resolved with more normal deadlines. No effort has been made to resolve any possible substantive issues; only a few of the more evident non-substantive ones have been resolved in this version.

It should be noted, of course, that these comments represent the views of the author and not those of the US Environmental Protection Agency or the NCEE.

Alan Carlin
June 27, 2009