About
This website is being used by Alan Carlin as a form of electronic news to present insights based on economics and science on current public policy issues.
Editor: Alan Carlin
About Alan:
I have been carrying out or supervising economic and scientific research on public policy issues for over 40 years, first at The RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California, and from 1971 to 2009 at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in Washington DC. During that time I have carried out or supervised over a hundred policy-related studies on climate change, pollutant assessment, energy economics and development, environmental economics, transportation economics, benefit-cost analysis, and economic development. Those personally carried out by me are listed on the publications page. Those primarily involving economics and supervision of the output of others are listed in the Environmental Economics Research Inventory on the website of the EPA National Center for Environmental Economics.
I am the author or co-author of five published papers on climate change or energy pricing. For seven years I supervised the production of a wide variety of criteria documents very similar in concept (but not in implementation) to the draft endangerment Technical Support Document I commented on in March, 2009. The criteria documents were on different compounds, of course.
I have a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
I have an extensive background of working with and in environmental organizations as a volunteer. In the late 1960s I worked very closely with the Sierra Club to present economic arguments against the construction of two proposed dams in the Grand Canyon of Arizona. This campaign was ultimately successful and the dams were not built. In 1970-71 I served as the Chairman of the Angeles Chapter of the Sierra Club, then the Club’s second largest chapter. I am the recipient of the Chapter’s Weldon Heald award for conservation work.
The views expressed on this Website are my own and do not represent those of my past employers.
From: Gerry McDonald. August 8th 2009
The Crusade against Carbon Dioxide is WRONG.
Global warming is real. Retreating glaciers, shrinking ice caps and the melting Arctic Ocean leave no doubt. But the phenomenon is poorly understood and politicians and scientists have rushed to questionable conclusions.
It is widely, but erroneously, believed that the “Greenhouse Effect,” is caused by the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and that Global Warming can be reduced by removing CO2. That belief is wrong, and its pursuit is a serious waste of financial and political resources.
The principal cause of Global Warming is “Thermal Pollution.”
When we drive our car and consume one gallon of gasoline, 113,400 Btu (The engineers’ standard unit of energy) is released. 70% of that energy is dissipated directly to the atmosphere through the radiator and exhaust pipe (we all know how hot those get!). The remaining 30% drives the wheels but all of that 30%, in the end, is also dissipated as heat through braking and friction. The same principle applies to airplanes, power plants, factories, even lighting our homes. All activities that convert fuel to energy cause Thermal Pollution. Every single Btu or calorie that is released from any source ends up causing Thermal Pollution that heats up our globe. But is that amount of heat enough to cause global warming ?
The answer is a resounding YES:
Ø Every day we burn fossil fuels equivalent to more than 230 million barrels of oil, which release over 500 “Quads” of heat (Quadrillion Btu per year.)
Ø The weight and heat capacity of the earth’s crust, atmosphere and oceans, which are affected by this release of heat, are well known.
Ø By applying basic physics we find that 500 Quads will cause a temperature increase of 1.6 F° per century – very close to the 1 to 2 °F of global warming actually observed by climatologists.
Global warming is explained by Thermal Pollution without invoking questionable arguments about CO2.
(The full calculation is available from: GerryMcDonald@Comcast.net. It could be noted that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted by the Thermal Pollution calculation also corresponds closely to that actually observed every winter.)
The Greenhouse Effect.
The “Real Climate” states that water vapor is 66%-85% of the effect and the American Meteorological Society states “water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas accounting for 60% of the total”. Water vapor is the dominant cause yet we see no campaign to remove the clouds or dehumidify the atmosphere. Why are we barking up the wrong tree ? Is CO2 being used as a club with which to beat industry ?
It is claimed that the apparent correlation between the increased atmospheric CO2 and the increased global warming demonstrates cause and effect. That is not the case. These are independent effects of Thermal Pollution and would be expected to correlate. The baseball season begins in the spring and birds nest in the spring but it can hardly be argued that birds nest because of the baseball season.
Much of the support for the Greenhouse Effect is based on sophisticated mathematical weather models that have not been very accurate in predicting weather one month ahead, let alone one century. Eminent experts (Nigel Thomas: “An Appeal to Reason”, Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King: “The Hot Topic”, Bjorn Lomborg: “The Skeptical Environmentalist”.) and others have noted “flawed arguments” and the need to “tweak” the data to produce the desired results. One author describes talks of “computerized storytelling”. Mathematical models, that have to be “tweaked”, are highly suspect (Our current global economic problems are probably due to “tweaked” models.)
The Kyoto Accord
The Kyoto accord is an attempt to reduce global warming by curtailing CO2 emissions and reducing the greenhouse effect. While the Accord’s intentions are good they will have little effect. Lomborg, after extensive analyses, shows that world wide implementation of the Kyoto restriction will reduce global gross product by as much as $350 Billion per year and is predicted to lower global temperature by only 1°F in 2100. This is a waste of global resources that could be applied to improving our world’s health, education, and living standards.
A “Cap and Trade” program, whereby emitters entitlements to pollute has already been passed by congress. This program will not reduce CO2 emissions – merely redistribute them. The only beneficiaries will be the promoters, entrepreneurs, and traders who will establish a market for trading entitlements and the resulting derivatives. The cost of such programs will fall on John Citizen as the increased cost of electricity, gasoline and every other commodity and will produce no benefit.
Action.
There are practical solutions. Global Warming is principally caused by Thermal Pollution from the burning of fuels. Burn less and there will be less global warming – and we can easily burn less. The U.S. releases about 93 Quads of Thermal Pollution each year and globally the figure is 460 Quads. This can be reduced by the use of more efficient autos, trucks, power plants supplemented by solar and wind energy and other “green” sources. The technology is already available and our prolific inefficient use of energy provides abundant further opportunities.
A gasoline engine is about 23% efficient but a modern diesel engine can be over 45% efficient and therefore produces about half of the Thermal Pollution of a gasoline engine, while yielding twice the miles per gallon. Enforcement of a mandate that all passenger cars produced after 2010 yield 45 mpg (as attained by full-sized diesel-hybrids) would do more for the global environment than the Kyoto proposals. Thermal Pollution in the U.S. would be reduced by at least 8 Quads (~10%) by this single action. Redesigning our automobile fleet, and related activities will revitalize the industry and put thousands back to work – probably the best application of stimulus funds. Transitioning oil refining from gasoline based to diesel based will provide further employment.
50% of the fuel burned in the U.S. is for electric power generation. Modern gas-fired combined cycle plants operate at close to 60% thermal efficiency while older plants operate in the 30% to 35% class. Conversion of coal plants to gasification processes will increase efficiency (and essentially eliminate sulfate and particulate pollution). Enhanced efficiency plus contributions from wind and solar sources can reduce Thermal Pollution from power generation by 15 Quads (~16%).
Proponents of the CO2 greenhouse effect do not have to abandon their devotion to reducing CO2 emissions since increased efficiency of any form of energy conversion will effectively reduce both CO2 emissions and Thermal Pollution.
Economics.
Our nation, and the globe, is in a severe economic depression. In the U.S. our foreign trade deficit is about minus $675 Billion per year. Of that over half of that deficit is due to the purchase of 5.0 Billion barrels of crude oil per year costing, at $60/bbl, over $300 Billion. Increasing the efficiencies of our cars would reduce crude oil imports by almost 2 Billion barrels per year and reduce the outflow of U.S. dollars by $120 Billion per year and our foreign debt by the same amount. The even the threat of a reduction in U.S. purchases of oil will depress the price of oil and further increase the benefit. The whole world will gain.
Efficiency is not merely a desirable virtue. It is a necessary and sufficient basis for a sound, comprehensive energy policy. Opportunities for conservation exist everywhere and all pay handsome dividends. Such projects can generate jobs now and yield economic benefits for the future
Our Nation’s Credibility can be Restored
There is a foreign policy implication. Our nation has been ostracized for having refused to ratify the Kyoto Accord for the good reason that it unfairly penalizes the U.S. and its people. Part of that treaty and its requirements are based on the false assumption that CO2 is the principal cause of global warming. If the United States would enthusiastically embrace the concepts of Thermal Pollution and Enhanced Efficiency we would have a scientific, non-political, basis for modifying Kyoto and the opportunity to present realistic alternative, solutions and targets. These would benefit both environmentally and economically, the developed and the developing nations. Instead of standing aloof from the global community the U.S. could regain its credibility as a world leader.
We should boldly abandon our belief that CO2 is the principal cause of the Global Warming and initiate a program to reduce it by more efficient utilization of global resources. The forthcoming U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will presents the U.S. with an opportunity to take the lead in the second (2012 to 2016) Kyoto period and recover our nation’s credibility and prestige.
Gerry McDonald
Author: G. W. G. McDonald.
GerryMcDonald@Comcast.net (941) 346 2555
5780 Midnight Pass Rd.
Suite 401-B
Sarasota,
FL 34242-3054
McDonald Is a Chemical Engineer who served for 50 years in Petrochemicals etc
8th August 2009
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Alan,
You indicate that you worked at the EPA. You maybe aware of some leaked documents from the Office of Administrator. Did you resign or were you pushed? Was there an issue that no one was taking any notice of the the reports and warnings?
I fully agree with the comments and assessments in the leaked documents. I liked the list of references although I wish I could get hold of more of them. It is a pity so many articles are locked from the public in obscure journals where one has to pay to retrieve them.
A couple of things in the leaked document missing I feel was a) a discussion on past CO2 measurements eg E-G Beck 2007,2008,2009 the first is mentioned in the references and b) there is nothing about CH4. The EPA wants to put 6 so-called greenhouse gases in the endangerment class the main ones are CO2 and CH4 but there is no technical information on CH4 and no proof it is a greenhouse gas.
Some blogers are mentioning the Data Quality Act and the lacl of compliance by the EPA. I believe that certainly applies to CH4 (methane)
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